* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 09/10/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 33 46 55 64 66 69 70 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 33 46 55 64 66 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 21 22 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 6 3 9 3 1 4 6 6 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 5 4 0 -1 2 -3 0 0 7 9 SHEAR DIR 305 319 324 357 333 294 253 178 165 218 247 279 307 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.4 25.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 154 155 155 157 156 151 147 140 129 123 135 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 80 75 73 72 67 60 56 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 13 13 17 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -46 -40 -37 -38 -37 -20 -15 2 11 36 47 48 200 MB DIV 45 58 74 72 65 56 76 57 61 44 7 9 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 1 1 4 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 720 749 766 758 766 794 838 880 865 927 983 1165 1346 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.1 13.1 14.2 15.4 16.5 17.7 18.9 19.8 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.5 104.5 105.5 106.5 108.6 110.7 112.7 114.7 117.0 119.4 122.4 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 25 26 24 31 24 19 11 7 1 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 10. 15. 15. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 13. 26. 35. 44. 46. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 102.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 09/10/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 14.8% 5.0% 2.5% 0.1% 12.3% 33.9% 44.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 5.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 4.1% 11.4% 14.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 09/10/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##