* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 07/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 43 51 59 66 70 72 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 43 51 59 66 70 72 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 39 41 42 42 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 9 5 2 8 8 8 9 10 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 -3 6 7 5 4 4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 10 8 343 339 328 292 311 289 280 346 354 329 310 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.6 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 148 148 147 151 154 152 144 143 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 73 73 74 75 73 71 72 66 63 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 15 16 18 20 21 20 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -20 -12 -7 -4 10 6 6 27 22 9 -7 -4 200 MB DIV 25 36 35 22 45 111 87 95 112 144 61 2 22 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 2 2 0 -2 -7 -5 -11 -6 0 1 LAND (KM) 889 942 1008 1112 1235 1368 1498 1678 1807 1988 2181 2355 2129 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 17 15 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 30 15 17 17 19 38 27 10 12 5 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 12. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 26. 34. 41. 45. 47. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 106.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.70 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 21.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 13.3% 5.8% 2.7% 0.8% 10.0% 24.0% 22.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% Consensus: 0.8% 14.6% 7.4% 1.0% 0.3% 10.0% 15.4% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##