* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 07/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 43 54 65 72 78 83 84 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 43 54 65 72 78 83 84 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 45 52 59 62 62 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 5 6 5 1 4 8 8 13 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 8 6 3 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 29 23 7 349 359 13 318 326 284 302 358 354 325 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.4 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 151 150 151 151 155 153 149 150 145 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 71 72 71 74 72 72 69 67 63 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 11 12 15 16 20 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -16 -15 -11 3 12 5 11 17 21 -7 -12 200 MB DIV 21 28 15 20 19 63 95 42 90 124 104 42 29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 4 3 2 -2 0 -1 -4 -15 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 876 914 983 1069 1179 1353 1496 1675 1844 2034 2237 2400 2149 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 28 29 15 21 20 43 26 13 17 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 14. 15. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 29. 40. 47. 53. 58. 59. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 105.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.72 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 21.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 28.0% 13.6% 7.0% 3.1% 15.9% 35.7% 32.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 17.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 1.4% 2.4% 2.1% Consensus: 1.8% 22.3% 10.1% 2.4% 1.2% 12.1% 19.8% 11.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##