* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 07/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 40 48 57 66 74 78 79 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 40 48 57 66 74 78 79 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 40 46 51 55 57 57 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 4 6 5 6 8 9 6 12 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 4 7 8 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 10 8 344 12 339 315 294 286 278 287 358 21 357 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.1 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 156 153 149 153 154 155 155 148 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 67 71 73 74 71 68 66 61 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 16 20 22 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -32 -29 -28 -18 4 12 14 26 30 22 11 200 MB DIV 18 21 30 36 24 51 142 92 115 100 80 28 8 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 4 4 2 0 0 -6 -3 -4 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 828 869 889 944 1002 1133 1270 1407 1582 1800 2066 2324 2039 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.8 106.4 108.0 109.6 112.5 115.2 118.3 121.6 125.1 128.7 132.4 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 14 14 16 17 18 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 16 22 30 32 27 18 47 16 38 21 19 6 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 13. 16. 16. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 23. 32. 41. 49. 53. 54. 55. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 103.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.73 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.5% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 23.3% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 63.3% 41.3% 30.7% 15.6% 39.0% 54.2% 49.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 25.4% 3.9% 1.3% 0.7% 24.0% 28.7% 4.7% Consensus: 5.3% 38.4% 23.1% 10.7% 5.5% 28.1% 35.4% 18.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##