* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 07/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 45 54 62 68 74 78 78 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 45 54 62 68 74 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 35 36 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 8 9 8 7 5 10 12 11 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 5 5 7 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 11 21 12 9 6 342 318 282 268 296 294 347 350 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.8 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 155 158 155 151 149 151 154 154 150 145 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 69 68 73 74 76 73 70 65 60 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 14 17 19 21 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -27 -30 -37 -31 -35 -19 3 22 28 32 45 18 200 MB DIV 4 16 16 17 25 28 69 124 119 121 93 73 7 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 3 -4 -3 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 802 845 901 929 970 1070 1211 1338 1454 1624 1852 2128 2163 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 15.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 102.7 104.4 105.9 107.4 110.3 113.0 115.8 119.0 122.5 126.3 130.4 134.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 15 17 18 20 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 16 30 25 28 14 23 18 43 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 25. 34. 42. 48. 54. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.4 101.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 40.5% 16.6% 9.7% 5.7% 17.8% 40.0% 55.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 2.0% 0.5% Consensus: 1.7% 14.7% 5.6% 3.2% 1.9% 6.3% 14.0% 18.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##