* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 07/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 32 40 49 58 65 72 77 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 26 32 40 49 58 65 72 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 28 30 31 33 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 8 6 8 8 8 13 14 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 0 1 0 2 3 7 10 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 18 18 25 4 335 347 336 293 274 284 308 326 344 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.6 29.0 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 153 157 150 150 150 152 154 156 148 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 69 69 72 73 75 76 71 70 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 14 17 21 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -23 -31 -34 -41 -30 -30 -16 7 16 23 27 28 200 MB DIV 0 3 12 19 4 32 49 78 111 150 99 99 34 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 1 2 4 4 2 3 -2 -5 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 785 817 863 914 953 1028 1131 1273 1379 1510 1671 1924 2185 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.6 102.2 103.8 105.4 108.3 111.0 113.6 116.6 119.9 123.5 127.4 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 14 13 14 16 18 18 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 20 13 27 22 22 14 18 21 29 19 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 20. 29. 38. 45. 52. 57. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 99.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 29.4% 11.4% 5.4% 1.9% 11.2% 22.1% 50.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 1.1% 10.6% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 3.8% 7.5% 17.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##