* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 07/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 55 59 66 70 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 55 59 66 70 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 28 30 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 7 7 5 12 7 6 10 10 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 -1 2 -2 0 0 -1 2 8 2 SHEAR DIR 30 28 17 28 22 343 1 356 294 288 303 328 6 SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 158 158 156 159 153 150 150 150 153 160 153 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 72 70 71 73 73 76 79 75 74 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 9 11 12 15 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -24 -24 -21 -30 -35 -25 -28 -11 6 12 11 16 200 MB DIV 44 30 -3 2 -6 9 34 54 90 89 131 119 84 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 4 3 5 2 3 7 4 -1 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 754 759 778 814 862 974 1069 1208 1366 1473 1611 1769 1942 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.6 99.2 100.8 102.4 105.7 108.7 111.5 114.2 116.9 119.9 123.1 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 16 16 16 14 13 13 14 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 11 20 19 22 19 29 23 14 13 18 35 51 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 11. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 35. 39. 46. 50. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.9 96.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 35.3% 14.6% 8.2% 3.1% 16.0% 20.2% 58.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 11.8% 4.9% 2.7% 1.0% 5.3% 6.7% 19.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##