* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 01/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 73 59 46 46 54 62 53 45 25 33 20 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -14 -4 7 6 4 8 16 22 17 4 5 6 9 SHEAR DIR 277 274 270 261 253 260 252 261 299 314 298 281 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.2 25.9 25.2 24.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 144 143 143 144 141 136 124 116 106 111 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.9 -56.3 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 59 60 53 52 51 45 41 39 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 11 2 -4 -30 -24 -13 -20 -21 -26 -65 -66 200 MB DIV 55 66 109 105 80 82 58 -4 -13 -10 5 30 -4 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 5 1 -6 0 3 6 10 3 6 7 LAND (KM) 1513 1529 1506 1481 1438 1362 1274 1199 1076 1009 985 1008 1056 LAT (DEG N) 6.5 7.0 7.7 8.2 8.8 9.8 11.0 12.6 14.4 16.2 18.0 19.2 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.4 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.1 113.7 114.9 116.5 118.4 120.0 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 6 6 5 7 10 11 13 11 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 16 8 6 5 6 6 12 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -9. -14. -21. -26. -33. -40. -46. -49. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -20. -21. -21. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -27. -31. -34. -32. -32. -34. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 6.5 110.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 01/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 01/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX