* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 01/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 67 67 56 43 45 56 62 49 30 31 29 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -1 8 8 8 6 18 24 9 6 6 8 SHEAR DIR 278 275 271 266 253 248 252 245 274 304 305 266 272 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.4 27.1 25.1 24.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 144 143 143 143 144 138 136 116 103 107 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -56.1 -55.7 -55.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -55.5 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 8 7 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 58 61 62 63 60 54 53 52 44 39 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 14 0 -4 -23 -36 -13 -21 -25 -27 -35 -73 200 MB DIV -4 41 77 104 117 69 65 39 -3 -17 2 13 9 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 4 3 -4 -1 5 6 4 8 10 10 LAND (KM) 1474 1489 1483 1449 1424 1365 1289 1195 1102 1017 998 976 1008 LAT (DEG N) 6.2 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.5 9.4 10.4 11.9 13.7 15.3 17.3 19.2 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.2 111.1 111.6 112.0 112.4 112.6 113.0 113.9 115.4 117.6 119.6 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 7 6 5 6 9 10 13 14 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 20 10 7 6 6 7 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -14. -20. -26. -33. -41. -46. -51. -52. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -22. -23. -22. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -14. -19. -27. -33. -36. -36. -35. -38. -39. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 6.2 109.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 01/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 01/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX