* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 10/19/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 36 40 42 49 53 54 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 36 40 42 49 53 54 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 6 5 12 12 10 17 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 -5 -4 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 352 353 338 339 348 344 324 302 312 302 268 244 222 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.1 28.2 28.9 30.0 29.2 29.4 29.0 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 154 157 154 145 153 166 157 159 156 146 141 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 7 6 5 8 5 7 5 8 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 79 77 80 80 79 82 81 82 83 82 77 70 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 17 1 -11 -3 0 0 21 28 23 49 63 200 MB DIV 39 42 34 28 28 46 57 65 84 81 81 116 124 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 1 2 5 1 1 -2 0 1 11 LAND (KM) 105 86 69 67 80 114 68 113 140 133 108 183 325 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.1 15.0 15.7 16.8 18.1 19.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 92.1 92.5 92.9 93.4 94.5 96.1 98.2 100.5 102.4 104.7 107.1 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 5 7 9 11 11 11 13 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 14 15 13 12 19 26 27 19 33 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 15. 17. 24. 28. 29. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 91.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 10/19/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 20.9% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 52.6% 31.3% 23.5% 15.0% 43.4% 57.9% 56.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 4.1% 3.2% 1.7% Consensus: 4.4% 26.9% 17.5% 7.9% 5.0% 21.7% 27.3% 19.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 10/19/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX