* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 10/19/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 35 40 45 48 54 56 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 35 40 45 48 54 56 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 5 8 7 5 7 13 9 12 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -3 -5 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 83 10 360 346 336 358 344 308 315 315 293 267 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.4 28.8 28.4 29.7 30.2 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 151 155 157 151 147 162 168 154 154 155 147 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 80 80 78 82 80 83 82 82 76 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 8 7 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 18 15 -1 -12 -3 0 13 22 30 24 61 200 MB DIV 49 38 35 34 29 41 64 58 74 66 79 89 117 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 2 1 3 4 -1 1 -4 10 4 LAND (KM) 134 129 116 113 119 145 102 130 177 149 109 122 249 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.9 14.7 14.9 16.0 17.2 18.6 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.4 92.8 93.2 93.6 94.5 95.7 97.3 99.5 101.4 103.4 105.8 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 5 5 5 6 10 11 11 12 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 10 14 17 15 13 19 24 29 20 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 29. 31. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 92.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 10/19/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 52.6% 31.2% 22.5% 11.8% 40.2% 47.9% 49.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 2.1% 0.6% Consensus: 3.2% 26.0% 17.2% 7.6% 4.0% 19.4% 23.2% 16.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 10/19/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX