* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 10/19/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 35 41 46 54 58 57 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 29 28 27 27 27 29 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 25 26 27 27 27 30 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 10 5 9 5 8 10 12 9 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 317 343 325 314 318 287 256 208 241 193 198 173 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 29.1 29.9 29.7 28.6 29.7 29.5 29.9 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 155 164 162 150 162 161 165 155 153 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 7 7 5 7 6 9 7 10 6 8 700-500 MB RH 81 82 79 78 81 82 85 84 81 73 65 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 10 10 11 11 13 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 38 32 22 22 17 2 15 35 51 19 24 36 44 200 MB DIV 69 51 33 48 70 80 101 66 91 52 50 49 67 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 113 103 70 51 55 -23 -151 -134 -57 -25 26 95 100 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.1 16.3 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.0 92.4 92.9 93.6 95.0 96.9 99.1 101.9 104.0 105.2 106.0 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 9 11 12 12 8 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 11 16 17 22 27 32 34 36 26 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 2. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 10. 16. 21. 29. 33. 32. 32. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 91.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 10/19/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 32.8% 16.0% 10.9% 4.4% 35.1% 51.8% 43.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 5.2% Consensus: 1.4% 18.4% 12.0% 3.7% 1.5% 17.6% 24.6% 16.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 10/19/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX