* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 42 50 57 70 79 84 86 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 42 50 57 70 79 84 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 40 45 51 58 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 2 1 4 1 1 6 4 5 14 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -3 -1 5 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 46 53 70 86 40 137 89 128 59 38 48 61 52 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 160 159 157 154 151 148 147 146 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 66 65 66 64 63 61 57 57 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 17 18 18 22 24 27 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 8 11 10 18 9 37 37 55 70 77 102 200 MB DIV 12 22 28 39 44 34 39 27 -20 22 0 5 0 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 -2 -5 -1 0 0 3 0 -1 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 672 665 672 687 715 805 894 1037 1220 1424 1632 1857 2111 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 22 17 14 13 12 21 15 6 9 21 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):322/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 24. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 7. 8. 15. 19. 24. 26. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 17. 25. 32. 45. 54. 59. 61. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 111.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.3% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 18.8% 12.0% 5.4% 2.5% 22.3% 11.5% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 14.3% 9.5% 1.8% 0.9% 13.5% 10.8% 2.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 34.0% 18.0% 9.0% 2.0% 19.0% 19.0% 56.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX