* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 45 55 66 73 79 81 82 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 45 55 66 73 79 81 82 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 51 56 60 65 70 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 7 5 10 9 11 18 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -5 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -8 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 55 53 65 82 46 78 122 90 65 41 60 37 65 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 163 162 159 156 152 149 146 145 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 67 66 65 64 59 59 55 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 12 15 17 21 22 24 26 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -4 1 4 13 22 27 32 52 68 77 96 200 MB DIV 27 24 28 21 25 33 55 43 -14 31 -6 1 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -2 0 -3 -3 0 -4 0 0 -5 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 762 759 743 755 781 869 945 1075 1242 1431 1609 1796 1991 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 38 28 20 14 13 20 13 8 9 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 5. 7. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 20. 30. 41. 48. 54. 56. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.29 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 21.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 17.6% 10.6% 5.0% 4.2% 20.7% 35.3% 20.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.8% 14.4% 11.1% 1.7% 1.4% 13.4% 18.8% 7.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 22.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 10.0% 21.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX