* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 38 48 59 67 74 80 78 83 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 38 48 59 67 74 80 78 83 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 33 40 48 56 63 65 68 72 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 6 3 4 9 8 13 10 14 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 45 59 68 80 103 69 110 92 84 77 71 61 56 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 163 163 160 158 154 151 149 147 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 71 71 69 67 65 63 55 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 12 12 13 15 17 19 21 20 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -11 -10 -3 11 29 23 32 41 50 59 67 200 MB DIV 34 23 19 24 14 38 51 48 30 -21 8 1 -11 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -2 0 -6 0 -3 1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 732 790 804 806 823 891 973 1069 1175 1345 1581 1789 1989 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 8 9 8 8 11 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 34 41 45 29 16 14 16 20 9 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 15. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 13. 23. 34. 42. 49. 55. 53. 58. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 110.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.5% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 22.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 20.9% 12.2% 6.2% 7.5% 28.3% 60.8% 41.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% Consensus: 0.8% 16.4% 11.9% 2.1% 2.6% 16.6% 27.9% 14.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 35.0% 18.0% 8.0% 2.0% 18.0% 30.0% 77.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX