* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 64 75 78 81 81 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 64 75 78 81 81 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 33 39 46 53 57 59 60 62 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 4 2 2 3 2 3 3 6 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 2 3 0 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 47 70 84 140 289 33 270 81 89 24 37 42 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 159 159 158 155 151 146 142 139 133 129 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 73 71 69 68 64 64 61 57 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 11 14 16 20 19 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -6 -8 -4 2 17 26 25 28 43 42 45 200 MB DIV 25 35 31 29 10 19 35 33 15 1 0 -26 -8 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -11 -9 -3 -3 -4 1 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 707 745 792 787 780 824 889 946 1062 1240 1407 1573 1752 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 35 42 38 18 13 13 18 10 5 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 13. 15. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 29. 39. 50. 53. 56. 56. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 109.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 20.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 24.0% 16.9% 7.3% 4.5% 25.5% 37.5% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 14.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% Consensus: 1.6% 19.8% 13.3% 2.5% 1.6% 15.1% 19.8% 8.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.0% 30.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING