* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 50 61 72 81 81 82 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 50 61 72 81 81 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 54 58 59 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 0 1 3 3 1 4 6 8 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -2 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 20 17 41 252 185 224 121 177 13 352 23 26 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 159 159 158 159 158 154 148 143 140 137 134 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 74 73 70 69 65 62 62 58 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 11 12 15 18 21 20 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 4 0 -5 2 10 22 25 27 29 39 28 200 MB DIV 54 47 38 38 27 30 27 15 32 15 -28 -7 -18 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -5 -6 -10 -4 -5 -5 0 -2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 699 690 707 744 796 776 836 939 1076 1252 1394 1565 1767 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.9 17.7 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.6 109.6 110.6 111.6 113.8 115.8 118.1 120.3 122.5 124.4 126.4 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 35 28 31 40 36 17 13 17 10 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 19. 17. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 36. 47. 56. 56. 57. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 107.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.94 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.1% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 21.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 22.7% 18.6% 8.0% 2.5% 28.7% 13.5% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 19.0% 13.1% 2.7% 0.9% 16.5% 11.8% 4.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX