* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 63 71 80 88 92 92 90 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 63 71 80 88 92 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 41 49 58 66 74 76 75 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 2 1 5 1 2 4 1 8 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 1 0 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 50 47 25 225 4 45 267 149 353 68 60 52 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 160 159 160 158 156 150 144 142 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 74 73 70 69 64 65 63 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 15 18 22 24 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 3 4 0 -2 6 18 26 30 37 41 38 200 MB DIV 48 53 49 42 48 27 23 22 20 32 22 -1 -23 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -9 -8 -7 -14 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 725 730 730 745 774 808 826 931 1052 1222 1390 1536 1672 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.8 108.8 109.9 110.8 113.0 115.2 117.4 119.8 122.0 124.1 125.8 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 34 28 31 49 19 13 15 13 7 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 22. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 38. 46. 55. 63. 67. 67. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 106.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.88 7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.4% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 31.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 41.2% 31.7% 18.5% 7.7% 44.6% 52.4% 49.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 2.0% Consensus: 2.3% 26.9% 20.4% 6.4% 2.7% 22.9% 28.2% 17.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 25.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 6.0% 67.0% 77.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX