* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 46 56 64 71 78 81 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 46 56 64 71 78 81 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 57 63 67 66 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 4 5 5 2 4 2 5 3 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 4 5 1 1 0 -3 0 1 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 4 334 300 337 1 18 82 182 166 148 132 129 343 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 159 159 160 160 157 152 146 142 136 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 75 76 77 77 74 71 68 63 61 60 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 17 19 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 3 9 13 8 6 24 25 40 41 38 27 200 MB DIV 53 58 63 64 53 31 4 4 6 29 15 -8 -47 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -10 -12 -14 -18 -10 -3 -3 1 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 720 721 734 755 791 859 874 960 1062 1218 1383 1519 1692 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.6 16.6 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 108.0 109.2 110.4 112.7 115.0 117.1 119.4 121.7 124.0 126.1 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 41 32 30 43 22 15 15 15 7 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 13. 15. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 21. 31. 39. 46. 53. 56. 56. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 105.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.6% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 22.7% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 41.9% 33.2% 17.7% 6.5% 35.6% 35.8% 56.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 29.5% 11.8% 4.2% 0.6% 13.6% 14.9% 4.4% Consensus: 3.3% 33.0% 23.4% 7.3% 2.4% 23.7% 24.5% 20.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX