* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 50 59 66 70 75 77 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 50 59 66 70 75 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 40 46 51 55 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 1 5 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 339 334 314 298 322 336 30 131 247 214 10 27 23 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 157 158 159 160 158 153 147 145 142 139 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 75 76 74 72 67 66 62 62 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 17 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -1 1 8 13 4 11 17 24 23 21 31 200 MB DIV 68 50 57 62 72 54 13 -1 0 1 -2 -28 -15 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -4 -11 -11 -13 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 758 746 744 761 779 874 876 967 1102 1277 1470 1630 1796 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 15.1 16.2 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.7 106.8 108.0 109.3 111.9 114.4 117.0 119.5 122.0 124.2 126.2 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 35 38 40 33 37 31 16 15 13 10 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 34. 41. 45. 50. 52. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 104.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 14.0% 55.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING