* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 44 53 62 71 82 86 89 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 44 53 62 71 82 86 89 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 45 54 65 74 80 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 11 6 5 5 2 3 3 4 5 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 2 0 2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 342 340 347 324 331 344 104 145 147 65 89 66 8 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 156 157 158 159 157 154 150 147 145 142 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 75 76 75 73 70 67 65 64 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 18 19 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 12 15 10 11 2 3 12 11 21 11 10 200 MB DIV 101 74 49 58 67 22 20 11 26 12 28 18 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -4 -9 -12 -10 -5 -5 -7 -6 -4 0 LAND (KM) 767 774 775 783 809 877 952 996 1105 1211 1330 1483 1601 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.0 14.1 15.0 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.9 105.1 106.3 107.5 108.7 111.1 113.5 115.8 117.9 120.1 122.2 124.2 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 31 36 40 38 38 28 16 15 14 12 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 9. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 15. 17. 19. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 19. 28. 37. 46. 57. 61. 64. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 103.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING