* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 08/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 65 74 86 93 94 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 65 74 86 93 94 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 38 45 55 69 81 86 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 11 7 9 2 3 3 4 4 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 355 351 357 325 348 34 96 96 104 83 53 32 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 155 157 158 159 156 154 149 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 78 76 77 75 74 68 67 65 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 13 15 16 21 24 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 10 12 12 5 6 8 9 20 34 27 22 200 MB DIV 91 104 95 68 57 63 28 16 12 29 50 2 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 -3 -12 -5 -7 -4 -5 -7 -9 -4 LAND (KM) 781 810 820 807 801 822 888 934 988 1116 1222 1347 1429 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.9 13.1 14.4 15.3 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.5 104.6 105.7 106.8 109.1 111.5 113.8 116.2 118.5 120.6 122.5 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 23 30 36 35 36 30 15 14 16 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 23. 23. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 29. 40. 49. 61. 68. 69. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 102.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING