* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/22/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 19 16 17 19 22 23 22 21 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 19 16 17 19 22 23 22 21 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 20 21 18 16 14 8 5 6 11 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 0 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 298 294 283 274 278 302 310 328 277 253 258 246 255 SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.8 27.1 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 132 135 143 142 147 145 145 146 146 142 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 62 63 61 62 60 64 61 66 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -18 -20 -16 -11 -4 -6 -9 1 0 -7 -20 -16 200 MB DIV 12 11 13 10 2 -19 -32 -19 -8 -16 -16 -14 -1 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 3 1 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1859 1756 1663 1579 1502 1335 1156 977 794 668 643 733 895 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 138.6 139.7 140.7 141.7 142.7 144.8 147.1 149.4 151.9 154.4 157.1 160.0 162.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 17 15 14 15 21 12 11 25 21 27 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -6. -3. -2. -3. -4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 138.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/22/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/22/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX