* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 16 18 21 20 17 16 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 16 18 21 20 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 21 20 20 21 19 9 8 6 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 5 2 0 -3 -6 -3 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 300 298 298 297 293 287 317 323 324 309 247 247 248 SST (C) 27.0 27.7 28.0 27.4 26.8 27.4 28.2 28.1 27.3 27.8 27.2 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 141 144 138 131 138 146 146 138 143 137 137 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 69 65 63 63 68 63 64 61 62 59 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -7 -11 -22 -27 -14 -14 -14 -16 -5 -5 -10 -26 200 MB DIV 44 45 29 12 26 8 -19 -25 3 -7 -1 -4 15 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 2 3 3 3 7 LAND (KM) 2095 1989 1898 1814 1732 1577 1403 1214 1001 803 596 467 465 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.3 138.3 139.2 140.1 141.9 143.8 145.9 148.2 150.6 153.1 155.7 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 22 6 8 9 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -9. -7. -4. -5. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 136.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/22/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX