* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/21/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 25 24 22 23 27 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 25 24 22 23 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 17 18 18 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 30 29 27 25 22 24 26 23 17 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 3 4 0 0 -3 -6 -9 -7 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 310 305 307 308 300 307 310 314 326 328 342 326 131 SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 28.1 27.5 26.8 27.6 28.0 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 140 137 136 137 138 144 138 131 140 145 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 72 70 67 64 64 60 58 54 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -19 -22 -26 -30 -24 -33 -26 -26 -26 -16 2 1 200 MB DIV 10 16 28 23 15 12 -16 -15 -41 -31 -9 -6 -3 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2417 2416 2317 2256 2195 2079 1953 1814 1674 1509 1310 1101 892 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.0 133.9 134.5 135.1 136.4 137.7 139.2 140.7 142.5 144.7 147.3 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 6 6 7 6 7 8 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 10 15 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 870 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -21. -20. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. 2. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 132.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/21/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/21/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX