* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/20/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 27 26 29 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 27 26 29 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 19 19 19 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 22 24 22 26 19 21 19 19 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -9 -8 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 345 335 324 324 323 313 319 317 318 324 337 10 41 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 148 147 144 140 144 143 138 138 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 77 74 72 68 66 64 61 58 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -36 -31 -30 -33 -36 -35 -27 -21 -9 -5 6 12 200 MB DIV 9 3 14 30 24 22 -15 -23 -39 -49 -37 -25 -17 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 2418 2468 2522 2452 2377 2271 2157 2039 1899 1740 1538 1335 1125 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.6 132.5 133.2 133.9 135.0 136.2 137.4 138.9 140.7 143.0 145.5 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 10 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 14 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 4 8 20 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 4. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 130.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/20/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/20/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX