* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 28 28 28 27 26 30 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 28 28 28 27 26 30 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 18 18 18 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 18 18 21 25 27 25 20 19 13 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 2 2 -1 -1 -3 -6 -10 -8 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 354 345 337 325 321 319 317 323 317 325 328 19 120 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.7 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 28.4 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 147 144 139 144 142 139 140 149 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 77 75 72 72 66 67 63 62 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -36 -38 -32 -34 -41 -43 -42 -38 -31 -21 -10 11 200 MB DIV 34 4 13 26 31 16 4 -8 -15 -25 -32 -22 -33 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 2388 2465 2523 2509 2424 2290 2181 2069 1951 1816 1663 1491 1334 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.3 10.9 10.4 10.0 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.9 131.9 132.8 133.6 134.9 136.1 137.3 138.7 140.4 142.5 145.0 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 14 10 10 9 7 8 7 6 12 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -15. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 5. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 129.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/20/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING