* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/20/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 32 33 34 35 35 32 31 31 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 32 33 34 35 35 32 31 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 22 21 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 15 14 21 23 27 24 18 16 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 1 2 2 2 -1 0 -1 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 337 341 337 338 337 325 324 311 313 299 307 301 323 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.1 27.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 144 146 143 143 142 144 134 134 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 76 76 77 72 70 64 65 60 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -17 -27 -32 -32 -40 -43 -48 -51 -37 -26 -16 0 200 MB DIV 138 124 60 30 33 23 14 -5 -19 -18 -40 -35 -18 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -10 -8 -7 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2253 2355 2429 2504 2554 2355 2188 2060 1936 1810 1674 1530 1350 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.7 129.2 130.3 131.4 132.4 134.2 135.7 136.9 138.1 139.5 141.1 143.1 145.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 7 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 36 24 12 10 8 10 11 7 5 10 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 7. 6. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 127.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/20/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/20/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING