* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/19/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 35 36 36 33 31 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 35 36 36 33 31 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 22 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 15 14 15 24 25 28 21 16 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 341 341 346 347 347 333 327 320 315 301 285 274 281 SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.6 28.0 27.5 27.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 144 141 140 148 145 139 139 143 139 134 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 79 79 81 79 75 69 67 64 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -16 -15 -25 -30 -31 -36 -43 -44 -40 -36 -28 -20 200 MB DIV 110 124 102 39 19 22 24 8 -6 -20 -2 -23 -26 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -11 -8 -7 -4 0 1 1 2 4 1 1 LAND (KM) 2134 2221 2300 2374 2434 2519 2356 2232 2103 1963 1814 1642 1453 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.6 128.7 129.8 130.7 132.4 133.9 135.0 136.2 137.6 139.2 141.2 143.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 7 7 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 34 29 12 11 10 9 12 9 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -11. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 8. 6. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 126.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/19/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/19/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING