* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/18/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 38 43 50 54 56 56 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 38 43 50 54 56 56 55 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 40 43 46 47 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 18 22 21 19 17 17 17 22 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 0 0 -2 0 1 7 SHEAR DIR 359 14 6 359 14 28 25 14 6 350 331 334 316 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.5 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 144 147 149 142 144 144 149 147 145 143 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 74 78 79 80 80 81 80 82 80 78 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -36 -33 -27 -25 -11 0 6 10 8 9 -6 -18 200 MB DIV 65 83 87 73 56 55 46 38 9 18 6 16 5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1909 1997 2097 2171 2243 2355 2459 2566 2693 2571 2331 2062 1781 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.4 10.1 11.0 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 122.1 123.5 124.6 125.7 127.3 128.6 129.9 131.5 133.3 135.4 137.7 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 11 10 7 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 22 28 30 29 30 33 40 24 9 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 25. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 120.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/18/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 32.5% 10.8% 6.6% 2.0% 2.8% 5.0% 29.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 8.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9% Consensus: 3.8% 19.6% 9.8% 2.4% 0.7% 5.7% 1.7% 10.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/18/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX