* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 05/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 19 18 21 26 31 41 46 52 44 38 36 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 7 5 3 3 4 8 11 9 2 2 SHEAR DIR 239 243 239 242 242 249 272 277 266 253 235 226 231 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.4 24.2 24.0 23.8 22.9 21.9 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 136 135 134 127 117 105 102 100 91 81 66 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 65 65 59 60 54 48 41 36 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -2 -6 -11 -1 -9 -27 -40 -49 -50 -59 -51 200 MB DIV 13 25 72 80 57 31 -34 -49 -50 -30 1 23 32 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -9 LAND (KM) 2107 2128 2088 2033 1963 1810 1626 1401 1190 1005 822 581 312 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.1 14.5 15.9 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.8 21.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 126.2 126.7 126.7 126.5 126.3 125.7 124.7 123.0 121.0 119.4 118.2 116.8 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 11 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -15. -26. -36. -43. -47. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -17. -28. -43. -54. -62. -68. -73. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 126.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 05/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 05/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##