* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 05/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 19 22 23 31 38 44 54 55 58 62 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 5 5 3 4 -2 3 2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 247 241 237 232 232 237 253 260 258 253 251 251 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.4 25.3 24.0 22.6 21.7 20.4 18.3 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 136 137 135 127 115 103 89 80 67 64 71 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 66 65 62 59 58 53 47 41 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 -4 0 1 -6 4 -20 -30 -49 -34 -16 -2 200 MB DIV 32 40 45 49 75 44 29 0 -25 -33 -15 -5 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -14 -13 LAND (KM) 2002 2012 2001 1951 1901 1785 1661 1493 1227 932 588 224 55 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.9 14.5 16.0 17.5 19.3 21.0 23.1 25.3 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.0 125.2 125.2 125.3 125.4 125.2 124.4 122.7 120.5 118.0 115.2 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 7 8 8 8 10 13 14 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -18. -29. -40. -50. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -12. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -25. -37. -49. -61. -70. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 124.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 05/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 05/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##