* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 05/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 35 36 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 35 36 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 32 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 15 18 24 31 35 34 39 53 54 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 3 8 12 5 7 4 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 231 234 235 227 225 219 221 239 249 266 268 270 266 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.4 24.3 22.8 21.6 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 135 134 132 127 125 116 106 91 80 63 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 70 68 63 61 53 51 48 46 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 14 16 15 14 15 13 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -16 -20 -18 -11 2 8 -4 -4 -13 -7 -10 -25 200 MB DIV 63 37 31 55 80 107 35 -3 -8 -13 -46 -28 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 3 2 4 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1856 1855 1860 1852 1848 1877 1895 1899 1775 1589 1330 1018 651 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.7 17.2 19.3 21.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.2 123.8 124.3 124.7 125.7 126.3 126.7 126.3 125.4 124.2 122.1 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 5 7 11 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 21 17 13 11 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -16. -22. -29. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 0. -8. -14. -22. -36. -46. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 122.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 05/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.3% 11.5% 9.1% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.4% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 05/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##