* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 05/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 34 35 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 34 35 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 11 11 17 23 30 26 28 28 26 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 3 5 10 3 9 9 10 7 11 SHEAR DIR 232 224 239 239 226 221 207 220 231 261 259 246 223 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 136 136 135 134 131 128 125 120 120 125 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -53.9 -54.3 -53.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 73 72 70 66 58 52 51 46 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 17 16 17 16 17 14 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 -13 -13 -10 2 10 -5 -1 -15 -21 -24 -27 200 MB DIV 76 80 59 54 73 117 74 31 39 -33 -63 -43 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1841 1855 1860 1866 1874 1896 1932 1972 1982 1970 1952 1952 1979 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 3 1 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 25 23 21 19 18 17 14 10 4 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 10. 6. 2. -7. -16. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 121.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 05/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 7.9% 5.7% 0.4% 0.1% 5.9% 4.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 05/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##