* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 05/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 47 46 38 35 26 24 22 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 47 46 38 35 26 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 33 31 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 5 11 13 16 21 28 25 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 0 1 3 6 11 1 9 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 357 181 207 227 225 212 216 208 215 221 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 138 137 134 131 130 127 124 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 74 72 70 64 63 59 57 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 16 18 18 18 16 18 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -5 -4 -5 7 20 20 10 9 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 76 79 69 62 107 118 103 37 65 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 2 3 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1816 1844 1875 1862 1848 1818 1805 1778 1746 1706 1668 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 25 26 24 18 12 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 10. 7. 9. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 22. 21. 14. 10. 1. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 121.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 05/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 84.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.3% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 15.2% 8.3% 7.6% 3.2% 11.2% 4.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 2.7% 14.3% 9.4% 2.6% 1.1% 10.3% 7.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 05/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##