* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 05/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 42 51 52 52 44 37 30 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 42 51 52 52 44 37 30 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 38 37 32 27 21 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 1 5 5 9 16 22 28 28 26 35 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -2 -1 -1 3 5 11 7 2 9 5 1 SHEAR DIR 51 17 143 176 207 206 204 200 215 221 225 242 260 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.0 25.1 23.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 138 136 135 133 128 125 122 114 100 86 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -53.6 -54.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 73 71 65 60 55 49 48 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 19 18 20 17 17 17 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 17 22 11 13 5 -14 -28 200 MB DIV 87 73 79 95 104 125 101 109 46 37 31 -35 -39 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 6 1 3 LAND (KM) 1798 1833 1867 1878 1879 1836 1802 1823 1848 1749 1555 1304 1014 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.3 13.3 14.0 14.2 15.0 16.1 17.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.6 122.4 123.0 123.3 123.7 124.4 125.4 125.9 125.4 124.0 122.5 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 7 5 3 6 7 4 2 7 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 25 24 23 24 14 12 13 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 10. 12. 9. 9. 7. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 26. 27. 27. 19. 12. 5. -6. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 120.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 05/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 20.8% 12.5% 11.2% 5.2% 8.3% 3.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 15.5% 10.9% 3.7% 1.8% 10.0% 7.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 05/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##