* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 05/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 30 37 45 60 71 78 75 67 61 58 48 V (KT) LAND 20 24 30 37 45 60 71 78 75 67 61 58 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 35 44 51 51 46 40 33 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 4 11 17 21 19 15 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -7 -6 -5 0 5 6 8 9 6 2 SHEAR DIR 168 112 85 61 40 347 242 196 231 229 235 217 230 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 141 141 142 140 134 133 132 133 130 115 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 77 76 75 69 63 60 57 56 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 12 14 18 19 20 19 18 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -1 -4 -1 3 5 10 18 26 24 9 0 -14 200 MB DIV 117 110 110 97 88 116 144 143 37 30 45 57 26 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 1819 1881 1925 1958 1962 1877 1750 1698 1793 1901 1901 1722 1467 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 10.1 11.7 13.1 13.5 13.3 13.1 14.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.2 120.9 121.4 121.6 121.5 121.6 122.7 124.5 125.7 125.5 124.2 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 6 3 2 7 9 9 8 4 4 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 15 15 16 23 29 29 15 17 18 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 26.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 16. 17. 15. 14. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 25. 40. 51. 58. 55. 47. 41. 38. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 119.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 05/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.73 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 38.2% 80.6% 64.1% 61.1% 50.2% 69.4% 68.9% 21.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 9.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% Consensus: 13.9% 29.9% 21.9% 20.6% 16.8% 23.4% 23.3% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 05/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##