* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 10/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 37 37 36 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 37 37 36 35 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 29 27 25 23 25 25 32 35 36 30 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 4 3 6 6 10 8 0 5 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 63 63 57 65 63 73 87 102 107 86 76 75 64 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 165 164 167 164 153 150 150 148 144 145 148 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 9 6 7 5 5 5 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 82 84 82 80 82 80 72 69 63 62 56 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 118 119 108 110 90 97 83 95 93 83 59 23 200 MB DIV 73 101 108 86 96 84 64 23 86 23 17 -37 -16 700-850 TADV 0 2 -1 -1 0 6 10 14 18 10 8 -1 -14 LAND (KM) 211 165 111 109 149 290 548 876 1071 1313 1415 1289 963 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.5 15.5 15.2 14.3 12.5 11.3 11.7 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.4 96.3 97.4 99.1 103.6 108.2 112.0 114.6 115.9 115.5 114.0 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 10 14 18 23 20 16 12 8 6 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 15 15 19 32 18 10 18 12 9 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -22. -27. -31. -31. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 95.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 10/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 18.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 10/04/17 00 UTC ## ##