* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 10/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 32 32 32 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 32 32 32 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 29 29 27 25 26 30 31 31 34 18 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 5 2 3 3 6 3 6 -3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 64 68 67 66 72 71 94 104 107 73 43 17 115 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.6 28.5 28.2 28.3 27.8 28.2 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 165 168 165 153 148 148 144 149 149 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 5 4 5 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 82 82 85 83 82 83 73 69 65 65 65 64 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 111 128 126 124 97 84 77 99 98 76 69 86 200 MB DIV 90 103 111 102 81 43 64 77 95 63 64 22 15 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 0 0 2 12 13 18 10 -14 -27 -1 LAND (KM) 228 192 122 71 66 193 437 780 1048 1159 827 722 1082 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.6 16.3 16.4 15.6 14.0 11.6 13.6 16.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.5 96.2 97.1 98.6 103.2 107.7 111.2 113.3 112.2 109.9 112.4 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 9 13 18 23 20 15 12 15 17 23 27 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 18 19 28 21 9 15 17 15 8 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 28. 32. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -23. -27. -31. -30. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 95.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 13.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 18 UTC ## ##