* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 10/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 25 27 29 38 45 53 54 51 52 51 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 27 29 38 45 53 54 51 52 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 30 30 28 26 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 27 30 31 32 33 35 26 31 27 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 5 4 2 0 5 6 15 6 8 4 3 SHEAR DIR 78 72 75 79 82 86 85 73 72 75 73 66 69 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.6 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 166 167 169 165 154 145 150 151 154 145 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 9 6 7 6 5 4 6 6 700-500 MB RH 86 83 84 86 86 83 78 74 72 62 58 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 12 13 17 21 26 27 27 28 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 113 119 124 136 137 113 101 90 81 80 108 97 80 200 MB DIV 99 96 106 112 126 106 99 64 14 34 35 -2 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -3 1 0 2 0 -6 -4 4 6 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 172 117 45 38 81 234 526 665 606 760 1200 1432 1313 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.0 15.1 14.1 15.5 16.8 15.1 13.1 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.3 96.3 97.7 99.4 103.5 107.2 108.0 109.0 113.3 117.9 118.8 119.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 12 15 17 21 13 1 16 24 19 1 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 15 18 20 29 21 19 15 9 22 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -19. -25. -30. -33. -31. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -0. 4. 9. 17. 17. 16. 17. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 2. 4. 13. 20. 28. 29. 26. 27. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 94.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 7.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 12 UTC ## ##