* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 10/03/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 38 44 50 54 58 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 38 44 50 54 58 55 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 27 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 24 28 29 33 31 36 24 23 26 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 3 4 2 4 5 18 10 6 5 8 SHEAR DIR 71 71 67 71 72 79 80 82 60 63 81 79 76 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 162 163 166 163 153 147 148 150 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 86 85 83 84 86 83 82 74 73 66 60 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 13 12 12 14 16 20 23 26 24 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 111 113 124 123 121 129 98 98 89 89 86 100 92 200 MB DIV 109 111 106 124 109 117 83 72 57 24 21 -8 -11 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -1 7 3 -4 LAND (KM) 243 207 169 149 153 184 332 563 696 768 915 1157 1413 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 15.0 15.2 14.6 14.2 14.7 15.1 14.5 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.4 95.9 96.6 97.4 99.9 103.9 107.0 108.7 110.3 112.8 116.5 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 9 16 19 11 7 10 16 16 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 16 15 28 34 21 16 12 13 24 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 13. 22. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -10. -18. -24. -27. -29. -28. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 6. 12. 15. 19. 16. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 30. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 95.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 7.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 06 UTC ## ##