* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 10/03/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 33 35 41 45 47 44 39 37 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 33 35 41 45 47 44 39 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 25 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 18 22 27 34 32 29 32 24 24 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 6 5 2 4 10 10 11 7 3 3 SHEAR DIR 66 79 73 77 70 79 81 85 90 74 82 87 96 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 166 166 164 166 165 159 149 149 151 149 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 8 6 9 6 7 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 86 84 83 83 86 82 77 69 65 55 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 13 12 11 13 15 16 16 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 113 118 116 124 128 138 123 80 78 73 77 84 68 200 MB DIV 128 126 130 125 104 116 104 66 47 5 0 -8 -28 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -5 -3 1 4 8 3 -1 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 242 241 222 168 135 131 256 404 560 757 970 1293 1621 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.4 15.6 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.7 95.0 95.6 96.4 98.7 102.2 105.8 108.9 112.5 116.2 119.9 123.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 7 9 14 18 15 16 18 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 14 15 20 33 29 17 10 19 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -9. -16. -22. -26. -28. -27. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 16. 20. 22. 19. 14. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 94.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 11.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 10/03/17 00 UTC ## ##