* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 10/02/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 36 37 40 41 40 41 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 36 37 40 41 40 41 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 26 24 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 15 19 24 29 40 35 30 24 20 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 5 4 3 2 7 14 7 12 5 SHEAR DIR 60 69 78 73 68 64 80 79 83 98 101 115 86 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.3 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 166 165 166 163 165 165 158 149 152 153 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 8 6 8 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 84 86 86 84 83 85 82 81 72 70 64 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 11 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 116 128 124 125 141 135 131 84 72 77 50 36 200 MB DIV 120 143 141 132 114 112 113 44 34 30 20 14 -27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -5 -6 -4 0 2 5 8 13 13 11 LAND (KM) 228 220 219 233 197 124 133 266 438 702 918 1198 1522 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.4 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.7 95.1 96.4 98.5 102.2 106.3 110.2 114.1 118.2 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 8 14 20 19 18 20 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 13 13 15 19 33 25 13 17 23 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -16. -22. -26. -27. -25. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 15. 16. 15. 16. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 94.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 10/02/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.86 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 10/02/17 18 UTC ## ##