* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 10/02/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 47 52 52 56 59 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 47 52 52 56 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 28 28 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 14 17 21 23 27 37 34 28 22 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 3 7 8 3 4 13 12 19 4 SHEAR DIR 63 67 69 72 74 66 61 78 72 79 81 66 64 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 163 165 168 166 165 161 157 151 150 152 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 5 7 6 9 6 8 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 85 84 83 83 82 80 76 74 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 17 17 20 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 93 89 98 110 108 119 132 132 111 88 85 102 120 200 MB DIV 108 132 140 141 127 115 132 100 106 44 27 36 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 2 -4 -2 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 293 285 262 238 199 180 144 218 390 484 622 904 1157 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.2 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.0 93.8 93.7 93.6 94.1 96.2 99.3 102.9 105.9 108.9 112.8 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 4 7 13 16 16 14 17 18 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 12 12 12 15 23 34 26 16 14 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -15. -21. -25. -27. -25. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 9. 8. 12. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 27. 27. 31. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 94.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 10/02/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.86 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 6.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 10/02/17 12 UTC ## ##