* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 07/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 41 50 59 67 73 79 86 88 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 41 50 59 67 73 79 86 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 34 36 41 48 60 77 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 3 4 4 5 8 9 5 2 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 5 1 1 -1 -6 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 7 1 352 325 304 352 21 49 66 85 78 335 56 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 149 151 154 155 154 155 157 158 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 72 70 73 74 74 76 79 80 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 72 56 46 52 48 33 17 5 -7 0 20 6 15 200 MB DIV 20 18 8 16 7 42 63 94 87 78 73 49 49 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 0 0 -2 -5 -2 1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 547 592 600 629 666 613 625 658 630 516 403 407 576 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.9 14.5 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 92.2 93.6 94.9 96.2 98.6 100.5 101.7 102.2 102.6 103.8 106.2 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 12 7 5 5 8 11 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 16 15 10 12 18 29 41 46 28 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 25. 34. 42. 48. 54. 61. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 90.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 64.5% 43.7% 23.7% 12.9% 47.6% 79.2% 76.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8% Consensus: 4.5% 31.8% 20.8% 8.1% 4.4% 22.2% 32.8% 25.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##