* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 07/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 28 34 43 53 59 64 70 74 80 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 28 34 43 53 59 64 70 74 80 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 23 24 26 28 31 36 45 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 6 2 2 6 7 10 11 12 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 7 6 6 7 3 0 -2 -2 -7 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 39 44 24 16 39 359 20 24 44 59 73 88 85 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 147 146 148 150 153 152 152 156 157 159 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 78 77 74 72 70 72 76 76 78 78 82 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 52 65 65 46 40 50 42 20 10 4 2 19 24 200 MB DIV -1 18 13 12 1 12 33 71 91 86 88 73 50 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 3 4 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 312 423 547 599 623 679 651 653 675 652 604 496 419 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.7 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 89.3 90.7 92.1 93.4 95.6 97.7 99.5 100.7 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 13 12 11 10 7 5 2 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 11 16 13 10 12 16 22 28 38 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 14. 23. 33. 39. 44. 50. 55. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.1 87.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 07/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 30.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 31.9% 13.0% 4.7% 1.6% 30.3% 57.4% 63.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 11.4% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 10.2% 19.3% 21.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 07/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##