* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 05/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 50 61 72 81 92 96 93 90 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 50 61 72 81 92 96 93 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 44 50 58 71 88 102 105 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 10 10 13 11 7 9 10 9 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 7 5 3 -2 -1 -1 -7 -3 -7 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 91 133 128 107 114 117 102 100 98 107 122 161 157 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 170 171 170 169 166 165 165 165 165 164 159 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 73 73 73 73 75 76 79 75 74 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 13 15 21 24 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 64 70 74 67 65 54 53 50 41 49 43 62 59 200 MB DIV 145 159 172 172 168 143 167 136 140 141 114 75 81 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 493 480 473 468 475 533 533 538 503 445 345 224 133 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.6 13.7 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.7 92.5 93.4 94.2 95.5 96.2 96.9 97.4 97.2 96.5 95.9 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 5 3 3 3 4 6 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 21 24 28 39 50 64 60 49 36 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 10. 14. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 31. 42. 51. 62. 66. 63. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.2 91.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 163.2 -11.0 to 135.3 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 22.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/09/17 18 UTC ## ##