* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 05/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 45 57 72 83 93 97 98 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 45 57 72 83 93 97 98 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 38 46 58 73 89 96 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 6 10 11 11 8 8 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 4 5 3 -3 0 -5 -3 -1 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 87 94 122 124 113 107 93 74 76 84 122 141 144 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 165 167 170 170 168 165 165 167 166 163 158 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.1 -52.7 -51.5 -52.3 -51.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 74 72 70 73 73 73 76 76 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 13 14 16 18 22 24 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 68 75 67 57 54 51 42 42 53 60 75 200 MB DIV 145 138 155 163 155 157 151 188 165 180 123 88 101 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 503 502 508 519 512 549 615 666 634 524 378 255 189 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.7 10.0 11.0 12.3 13.4 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.6 91.2 91.9 92.7 94.3 95.3 96.1 96.6 96.6 96.4 96.3 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 6 5 3 3 6 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 14 17 20 27 34 43 60 57 38 27 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 20. 32. 47. 58. 68. 72. 73. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 90.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 151.2 -11.0 to 135.3 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 19.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/09/17 12 UTC ## ##