* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 05/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 59 67 74 77 82 84 84 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 59 67 74 77 82 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 51 57 65 75 86 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 11 8 11 13 15 10 13 11 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 3 1 0 -4 -4 0 -3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 110 90 75 87 100 108 109 94 78 75 84 116 164 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 166 167 169 168 166 163 165 168 168 167 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.8 -52.9 -53.5 -52.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 77 76 74 72 75 76 80 81 80 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 12 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 55 54 61 59 59 59 56 48 44 43 48 200 MB DIV 133 143 134 138 152 152 145 146 159 171 172 86 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 506 536 555 562 568 579 599 648 682 688 624 515 409 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.2 10.0 11.1 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.4 90.9 91.5 92.1 93.6 94.7 95.4 95.5 95.6 95.7 95.6 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 7 4 3 1 2 5 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 15 18 25 29 34 35 36 40 41 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 4. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 34. 42. 49. 52. 57. 59. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.1 90.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.0 -11.0 to 135.3 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 10.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/09/17 00 UTC ## ##