* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 05/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 57 64 71 74 77 79 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 57 64 71 74 77 79 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 46 50 55 63 71 81 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 13 15 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 7 4 4 6 -3 -5 -5 -7 -5 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 84 101 90 88 105 121 118 122 97 80 82 78 105 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 165 169 170 168 166 163 163 167 170 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 78 77 74 72 72 74 76 79 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 10 11 10 10 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 48 56 58 75 63 65 57 55 39 49 35 200 MB DIV 95 115 132 120 128 152 145 140 161 167 168 124 76 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 470 492 521 543 523 515 534 597 677 755 767 681 555 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.6 8.9 8.8 9.5 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 89.8 90.2 90.6 91.1 92.5 94.2 95.3 96.2 96.4 96.5 95.9 95.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 6 9 7 5 4 2 2 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 11 12 19 27 35 45 41 41 40 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 39. 46. 49. 52. 54. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.9 89.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.13 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.88 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 4.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.24 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.3% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.2% 67.0% 52.2% 44.9% 34.9% 70.5% 77.1% Bayesian: 4.7% 10.0% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.8% Consensus: 7.3% 37.5% 25.8% 15.2% 11.7% 23.8% 26.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##